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Massachusetts Population Estimates Program

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  • Susan Strate
  • Senior Program Manager, Population Estimates Program
  • (413) 577-0753
  • .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
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Homepage: Massachusetts Population Projections

With support from the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, UMDI produces population projections for all Massachusetts municipalities using a model developed by Dr. Henry Renski, Associate Professor of Regional Planning at UMass Amherst, and the PEP team. We updated this model and data inputs more recently, in 2018, with support from the Massachusetts Department of Transportation (MassDOT), for use in their Socio-Economic Projections for 2020 Regional Transportation Plans.

The resulting “UMDI-DOT Vintage 2018” projections are available here for download by sex and 5-year age group for each city, town, county, and state region in 5-year intervals to 2040. A report describing the inputs and methods used for the V2018 series is also available here for download. To view the projections, follow the link (on the right side of this page) to our interactive projections dashboard.

Modeled projections do not purport to predict the future, but rather may serve as points of reference for planners and researchers. In general, projections for small geographies and distant futures will be less predictive than projections for larger populations and near terms. Like all forecasts, the UMDI projections make assumptions about how past or recent trends will continue into the future. For the V2018 series, we use a component-of-change method based on trends observed in: town-level fertility and mortality from 2000 through 2010; state-level mortality and fertility trends through 2016; regional, gross migration-by-age trends observed in data from the 2005-2012 American Community Survey; and 2015 launch populations controlled to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2017 County-level Annual Population Estimates by age and sex. Download the full methods description.

UMDI also produces specialized population projections on a contract basis, including enrollment projections; small-area, detailed population projections by age, sex, race, and ethnicity; and projections of special populations. Contact us for more information on specialized projections work.

For more information:
Please contact Susan Strate at (413) 577-0753 or sstrate@donahue.umassp.edu.

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UMass Donahue Institute

University of Massachusetts

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